Following on from my post at the beginning of January 2016, Central Asia: what lies ahead?, I’m going to dedicate the rest of this month to thinking about the situation in the region in the coming year. I plan to do this at both a macro (state, regional) level as well as considering the implications at a meso (institutional) level, focussing where possible on higher education. This plan is facilitated by reports and news stories that have already been coming my way.

I open the series with an article from Kazakhstan-based Astana Times of 18 January that does a wonderful job of setting the global picture for the region. In the article,

Top Kazakh Think Tank Anticipates 10 Most Important Events in Central Asia in 2016

journalist Aiman Turebekova reports on the findings of the state-sponsored Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan (which I wish used the English acronym KISS rather than its actual abbreviation, KazISS!), which an organization has the aim of providing analytical support to the President.

The KazISS report focusses on global events that could have important implications for the political and economic development, stability and security of Central Asian countries. This is beautifully presented through an infographic which I have copied below, and is (c) KazISS. The infographic offers an immediate visual interpretation of the extent to which the world interacts/intersects with Central Asia, and thus the importance of what is happening globally to what happens in Central Asia. An English translation of these headlines and the full Astana Times story [en] can be accessed on the Astana Times website or downloaded as a pdf here: Top Kazakh Think Tank Anticipates 10 Most Important Events in Central Asia in 2016 18.01.16.

The ten headlines, using the same numerical order as in the infographic, are:

1. The deterioration of conditions in world markets and the slowdown in economic growth in Central Asian countries
2. Finding new means of economic cooperation in Eurasia
3. Expanding Chinese investment presence in Central Asia
4. Continuing instability in Afghanistan and implications for the regional security agenda
5. The increased terrorist threat arising from the Syrian conflict
6. Increased efforts by Central Asian countries in the field of regional security
7. Next election cycle in Central Asian countries
8. A new stage in the development of regional transport and energy projects
9. Iran’s return to regional processes
10. A decision on Kazakhstan’s bid for non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council for 2017-2018

Breaking these points down, we can identify three overarching themes that relate to the regional, global and national levels:

• Regional: The importance of regional cooperation, both at the level of the Central Asian countries and in partnership with other regional players such as Russia, China and Iran. The Central Asian countries have varying degrees of influence in the direction of regional processes (2, 3, 6, 8, 9);
• Global: The impact of transnational activities and processes, where the Central Asian countries may have limited ability to effect or control change (1, 10);
• National: Political and security concerns arising both from external factors such as terrorism and Syria and ongoing instability in Afghanistan, as well as internal factors such as forthcoming elections (4, 5, 7).

The analysis draws extensively on the Kazakh experience (the other Central Asian countries, for example, have little direct involvement in Kazakhstan’s bid to join the UN Security Council as a non-permanent member) and this serves as a reminder that whilst we frequently think about the five Central Asian countries in their regional form, that they are all at different stages from one another, with different contexts and varying priorities. It’s a bit like describing France and Poland or Spain and Sweden in the same breath simply because they are all members of the European Union. This should not undermine the importance of analysis at the regional level, but help us recognize that we must also understand what is happening at the individual country level.